AUDUSD seems to be in control of bears since printing highs around 0.7400 handle early this month. The currency has dropped over 200 pips since then, and registered a low just below 0.7200 mark. It is trading around 0.7275 levels for now and remains poised to turn lower near the 0.7300 handle.
AUDUSD probable wave counts are as follows: The currency had print lows around 0.5505 in March 2020. Since then, bulls remained in control and managed to carve a series of higher highs and higher lows through 0.7413 mark.
AUDUSD might have carved an impulse wave from 0.5505 through 0.7400 respectively. Ideally, a corrective drop should be underway, which could retrace the above rally. Bears might remain inclined to push through 0.6700 levels as initial drop.
If the above proposed wave structure holds well, AUDUSD might be preparing for a similar degree corrective wave A-B-C before resuming rally. The fibonacci 0.382 retracement of entire rally is seen towards 0.6678 levels, which could be the termination of Wave A.
Going further, we can expect a Wave B higher back towards 0.7000 handle before Wave C turns lower through 0.6230 levels. The fibonacci 0.618 retracement is seen towards 0.6228 levels as well and probability remains high for a bullish bounce if prices manage to reach there.
Traders might remain poised to hold short positions and add further at resistance around 0.6300 mark. The protective stop might be placed above 0.7400 while projected targets seen towards 0.6700 and lower.
Technical Analysis Team
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