AUDUSD had earlier managed to carve a meaningful top around 0.7413 handle. The currency has remained in control of bears since then and has dropped through 0.7030/40 lows today. Bears might be poised to remain in control going forward.
AUDUSD probable wave counts could be as follows: The drop between 0.7413 and 0.7200 mark could be marked as lower degree Wave 1, as seen on the chart here. The subsequent rally towards 0.7350, which was fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above drop, as Wave 2.
Since then, AUDUSD might be unfolding Wave 3 and a minimum extension could be seen towards 0.6980 levels in the near term. If Wave 3 is extended, prices may drop further below 0.6980 handle. If the above structure holds well, the currency is heading lower, overall.
Also note there could be intraday rallies or pullbacks but they should remain well capped below 0.7413 levels going forward. The entire drop could be unfolding as a zigzag or flat depending upon how the sub waves are unfolding for now.
AUDUSD had earlier rallied from 0.5505 mark through 0.7413 in an impulse wave. Ideally, this should be followed by a corrective drop towards 0.6300 mark, which is also fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire rally between 0.5470 and 0.7413 respectively.
Traders might remain inclined to hold short positions and also add further towards 0.7200/7300 resistance zone with protective stops above 0.7400 and projected targets below 0.6300 levels respectively.
Technical Analysis Team
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