WTI Crude Holds Below $43.50 Potential Top

27 August 2020

WTI Crude has been drifting sideways since the beginning of this month as bears might be preparing to break lower towards $38.70 initial support. The commodity had managed to print $43.50 highs in July 2020, before reversing lower again.

WTI Crude probable wave counts are as follows: After printing historic lows around $0.01 in March, the commodity has been in control of bulls and managed to carve higher highs and higher lows through $43.50 levels.

The entire rally between $0.01 and $43.50 seems to have unfolded in 3 waves, hence corrective. This could be a part of potential triangle unfolding at one larger degree. High probability remains for a corrective drop towards $27.00 levels at least, if not further.

Looking at the last leg, it might have unfolded as an ending diagonal structure, terminating around $43.50 levels. A break below $38.70 would confirm that a meaningful top is in place around $43.50 mark. WTI Crude should drift towards $34.34 levels, if the diagonal count is correct.

The fibonacci 0.618 of entire rally between $0.01 through $43.50 is seen towards $16.75 levels. High probability remains for a bullish bounce if prices manage to reach those levels. Only a sustained break above $43.50 would change the above bearish structure.

Prepared by
Technical Analysis Team

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